Risk and Bankability Analysis
What happens in a dry year. Four production cases, cuts by revenue type, and a red-flag screen before term sheet.
A lender will ask what happens when the year is dry. We run four production cases, then cut revenue by type so a strong wholesale story cannot hide a weak contract.
OPTIMUS does not lend and does not set the coverage test. The software shows the cases. The lender decides whether the room is enough.
Four cases
These labels are the cases in the pack. They are not a sample project, and they are not a promise that debt will clear.
| Case | What it is |
|---|---|
| Sponsor | The production story in the sponsor's memo. |
| Base | The Recommended Case. Same battery as the sizing study, not a second set of assumptions. |
| Downside | A weaker year, such as a dry year, on that same battery. |
| Severe | A year that tests whether any room is left under the lender's coverage test. |
Each case is split by revenue type. Contract revenue and merchant revenue stay in separate lines. Chile and Mexico prices are never added together.
What you walk away with
- Four production cases, not one return number
- Revenue-quality cuts by type
- Coverage headroom on the same case
- Red flags before the term sheet: coverage headroom, a merchant cap, and the cost of keeping the battery whole