Electricity Price Volatility

For merchant energy storage, volatility is the core driver of revenue. Unlike baseload generation, which relies on steady, average prices, a BESS thrives on the extreme highs and lows (the spread). OPTIMUS analyzes historical and forward-looking price volatility, focusing on the frequency of 'tail events' (e.g., Winter Storm Uri, summer heat domes, or sudden wind drop-offs). Our models ingest massive datasets of 5-minute and 15-minute real-time pricing to construct probability density functions, allowing investors to stress-test their financial models against P90 (downside) and P10 (upside) volatility scenarios.